JulianMorrison comments on Why Our Kind Can't Cooperate - Less Wrong
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I'm going to agree with the people saying that agreement often has little to no useful information content (the irony is acknowledged). Note, for instance, that content-free "Me too!" posts have been socially contraindicated on the internet since time immemorial, and content-free disagreement is also generally verboten. This also explains the conference example, I expect. Significantly, if this is actually the root of the issue, we don't want to fight it. Informational content is a good thing. However, we may need to find ways to counteract the negative effects.
Personally, having been somewhat aware of this phenomenon, when I've agreed with what someone said I sometimes try to contribute something positive; a possible elaboration on one of their points, a clarification of an off-hand example if it's something I know well, an attempt to extend their argument to other territory, &c.
In cases like the fundraising one, where the problem is more individual misperception of group trends, we probably want something like an anonymous poll--i.e., "Eliezer needs your help to fund his new organization to encourage artistic expression from rationalists. Would you donate money to this cause?", with a poll and a link to a donation page. I would expect you'd actually get a slightly higher percentage voting "yes" than actually donating, though I don't know if that would be a problem. You'd still get the same 90% negative responses, but people would also see that maybe 60% said they would donate.
"A slightly higher percentage"? More like: no correlation.
I recall that McDonalds were badly burned by "would you X". Would people buy salads? oh god yes, they'd love an opportunity to eat out and stick to their diets. Did they buy salads, once McDonalds had added them? Nope.
Similarly I recall that last US election the Ron Paul Blimp campaign was able to get a lot more chartable pledges than real-world money, and pretty quickly died from underfunding.
Yes, excellent point that should be underlined for the readers here.
People's metaknowledge is very poor. Their knowledge about themselves, especially so.
You make an excellent point, I was not really thinking clearly there.
However, I will note that my intent was not that it should produce an accurate prediction of donations, but to better gauge public opinion on the idea to counteract the tendency to agree silently but disagree loudly.
Someone[1] must be buying those salads, as McDonalds is keeping them on the market, and given that food spoils, it doesn't make financial sense for them to keep offering a product which doesn't sell.
1: I've actually tried the McDonalds salad 3 times. The first time, it was very (and surprisingly) good. The other two times it was mediocre.
You can keep small stocks of an item, and it can have positive effects beyond direct revenues, e.g. if families with one dieting or vegetarian member don't avoid McDonald's because that person can eat a salad.
I think the positive effect is that they can say that they sell salads, people can convince themselves they intend to buy the salad, and so on.
I saw a study recently that said that the mere presence of a salad on the menu increases people's consumption. I deeply doubt that fast food chains were surprised by that result.
From the nature of the study, it's not even about convincing themselves they intend to buy a salad. By merely seriously having considered the option, they give themselves virtue points which offset the vice of more consumption.
Or rather, another positive effect. These explanations aren't mutually exclusive.
That being said, nice insight.