benelliott comments on The Fallacy of Dressing Like a Winner - Less Wrong

19 Post author: benelliott 26 December 2010 08:59PM

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Comment author: orthonormal 26 December 2010 09:57:58PM *  12 points [-]

Note – When I first started planning this article I was hoping for more down-to-earth examples, but I struggled to find any.

This is a sign that you may be beating up a straw man (which is fun to write, but not as much fun to read). If your big insight doesn't cash out in direct practical advice or illumination of previously confusing phenomena, be very suspicious.

Furthermore, I think you've chosen poor examples in the "perfect Bayesians do X" category. The reference to Aumann's Agreement Theorem in the Bayesian Judo post was a joke, and the example from the comment wasn't suggesting you naively implement it in real life.

Finally, you should be aware of the prior discussion here on this topic.

These bugs aren't fatal, but they're good examples of why one's first post ought to be published in the Discussion section rather than the top level (and promoted later, if everything checks out).

Comment author: benelliott 26 December 2010 10:29:44PM *  8 points [-]

I actually deleted this post about 3 seconds after I first published it, and only put it back up here after a number of people asked me to. That post also had a number of people point out some more near-mode examples.