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Kazuo_Thow comments on Efficient Induction - Less Wrong
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On the problem of distinguishing between Turing machines of the kinds you mentioned, does Jürgen Schmidhuber's idea of a speed prior help at all? Searching for "speed prior" here on Less Wrong didn't really turn up any previous discussion.
Hmm, I had not seen the speed prior before. It seems to make strong testable predictions about how the universe functions. I'll have to look into it.
I discuss that concept here: http://alife.co.uk/essays/the_one_true_razor/