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gwern comments on Rationality, Cryonics and Pascal's Wager - Less Wrong
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I was surprised you'd give the human race so low a chance as a coin-flip.
I wouldn't even give "wiped out badly enough to set us back half a century" that high a chance. The whatever-it-is would have to hit at least 3 continents with devastating force to cause such a severe civilizational reversal. (Example: global warming won't do it. People on the rich continents will just up and relocate.)
I think the reason Roko puts it so low - and at the probability one gives when one doesn't know either way - is because there are so many current existential risks like nuclear warfare, pandemics, asteroids, supervolcanoes, and there are multiple existential risks which could become a concern between now and when cryo-resurrection is feasible (grey goo-level nanotech is a plausible prerequisite for resurrection, and equally plausible candidate for destroying humanity, to say nothing of AI risks).