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Nebu comments on How to Not Lose an Argument - Less Wrong
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Right, I suspect just having heard about someone's accomplishments would be an extremely noisy indicator. You'd want to know what they were thinking, for example by reading their blog posts.
Eliezer seems pretty rational, given his writings. But if he repeatedly lost in situations where other people tend to win, I'd update accordingly.
If you define rationality as winning, why does it matter what his writings seem like?
I can't directly observe Eliezer winning or losing, but I can make (perhaps very weak) inferences about how often he wins/loses given his writing.
As an analogy, I might not have the opportunity to play a given videogame ABC against a given blogger XYZ that I've never met and will never meet. But if I read his blog posts on ABC strategies, and try to apply them when I play ABC, and find that my win-rate vastly improves, I can infer that XYZ also probably wins often (and probably wins more often than I do).