timtyler comments on Optimizing Fuzzies And Utilons: The Altruism Chip Jar - Less Wrong

95 Post author: orthonormal 01 January 2011 06:53PM

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Comment author: timtyler 05 January 2011 12:24:16AM -1 points [-]

If you mean this my comment would be that that proposes accounting for uncertainty by appropriately penalising the utitilies associated with the charities you are unsure about. However, charities, especially bad charities, might well be trying to manipulate people's percieved confidence that they are sound - so those figures might be bad.

Comment author: Will_Sawin 05 January 2011 10:21:58PM *  1 point [-]

If perceived utility is negatively correlated (at the top end) with actual utility, as in your example, then your strategy is superior to putting it all in the perceived-best. However, if you expect this to be the case, then you should update your beliefs on perceived utility. If the figures might be bad, account for that in the figures!

If there is even a small correlation, putting it all in one is optimal.