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uninverted comments on Working hurts less than procrastinating, we fear the twinge of starting - Less Wrong
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I really don't think your brain predicts the momentary pain of entering cold water before you even leave the house.
Well, no, it predicts the momentary pain as you stand by the pool, and you stand by the pool hesitating for ages. Eventually your brain starts to predict standing by the pool feeling awkward before you leave the house.