New Year's Predictions Thread (2011)

Kevin

As we did last year, use this thread to make predictions for the next year and next decade, with probabilities attached when practical.

Happy New Year, Less Wrong!

As we did last year, use this thread to make predictions for the next year and next decade, with probabilities attached when practical.

Happy New Year, Less Wrong!

Prediction request for emergence of usable (commercial grade or easy DIY) eyewear computing of this sort

http://www.lumus-optical.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=9&Itemid=15

http://blog.2yb.org/2010/07/cd-case-wearable-computer.html

Please feel free to state your distributions beyond 2011

75% probability of being mainstream, or at least not unusual, by 2020. It seems like the obvious solution: phone screens are too small, laptops and even tablets are too inconvenient to carry around constantly. And I'd go 50/30/20 on the first mass market product being based on Android/Apple/other. (With Android, anybody can build it without asking for permission).

3Miller15y

This is one of the predictions I would include in my list for key trends over the span of this decade (rather than year). I might in weaker moments also conjunction fallacy it as an Apple product. I think there are some prereqs that still need to be addressed at this point including further maturation of mobile apps, some addressing of social acceptance of life tracking-style media recording, battery life, etc. So yeah.. S curve cumulative probability hitting 50% around 2020 that these achieve iPod like sales figures.

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New Year's Predictions Thread (2011)

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New Year's Predictions Thread (2011)

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