As we did last year, use this thread to make predictions for the next year and next decade, with probabilities attached when practical.
Happy New Year, Less Wrong!
As we did last year, use this thread to make predictions for the next year and next decade, with probabilities attached when practical.
Happy New Year, Less Wrong!
The unemployment rate in the United States will continue to be above 8%: 90%
"Core inflation" of the U.S. dollar (which ignores food and energy prices) shall remain below 2.0%: 80%
The fifth book in the "A Song of Ice and Fire" series will be published: 5%
A superintelligent AGI will be created: Less than 1 in 1 million
The Large Hadron Collider will destroy the world: Less than 1 in 1 million
My 96-year-old grandmother survives another year: 67%
The Riemann hypothesis is proven: 1 in 5000
I qualify for the Magic Pro Tour: 1%
I get a "real job": 1%
It might be worth noting that even if the LHC does do something that causes the world to be destroyed, it might be a rather slow destruction that could take a few years to complete, so that's not entirely an empty promise...
China will remain on-schedule with their build-up of nuclear plants (70%) and will announce that they are once again increasing their goal for nuclear generation capacity by 2020 above their current target of 112 GWe (50%). The mainstream position of major environmentalist groups in Europe and North America will continue to be that nuclear plants are always delayed and far over budget, even as China continues to demonstrate otherwise (90%).
Cloud computing will see two big trends. First, commoditization: there will be more choices, and significantly better interoperability between those choices (80%). Second, Amazon Web Services will continue to roll out interesting new services, and everybody else in the market will either be playing catch-up or trying to focus on different niches, but not leading the market in any significant way (70%).
Iran will not produce a nuclear bomb in 2011 (90%). North Korea will continue saber rattling, but will not be involved in a war (80%).
There will be a second season of High School of the Dead, allowing me to get my zombie action fix for the year (60%). I know this is crushingly inconsequential, but zombies are fun.
SpaceX will successfully complete or...
For even more recent predictions, y'all can check out http://predictionbook.com/predictions
(I've recently added ~90 based on various lists of predictions sparked by the new year, many of which are interesting, IMO; this is quite aside from all the predictions on this page.)
As noted by Keynes, markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you and I can remain solvent. However, I'd say about 80% for each of the following:
The price of gold will fall in real terms. [ETA one year on -- Wrong. Fell a bit towards the end of the year, but still a net rise.]
The price of U.S. housing will fall in real terms. [ETA one year on -- numbers still seem to be being crunched, or at least I can't find anything very recent I'd regard as reliable.]
The rate of inflation of U.S. dollars will rise. [ETA one year on -- I think I got this one ri...
General AI will not be made in 2011. Confidence: 90%.
The removal of DADT by the US military will result in fewer than 300 soldiers leaving the military in protest. (Note that this may be hard to measure.) Confidence: 95%.
The Riemann Hypothesis will not be proven. Confidence: 75%. (Minor note for the nitpickers: relevant foundational system is ZFC.)
Ryan Williams recent bound on ACC circuits of NEXP ((See here for a discussion of Williams work)) will be tightened in at least one of three ways: The result will be shown to apply for some smaller set of proble...
General AI will not be made in 2011. Confidence: 90%.
I hope to hell you're underconfident about that.
No. One model that could produce that prediction for next year is that one is 89% confident that GAI is impossible, and 90% confident that if possible, it will be discovered next year. Strange beliefs, yes.
But they give 10% chance this year and 11% in the next ten.
As Ray Kurzweil's predictions have come up in the comments, here's his "Predictions Essay" (4.1MB) where he grades himself on them and responds to some critics.
Wind power will provide more actual electricity than nuclear power by 2021, 80%, and I'd willing to put actual money behind this if it wasn't for high transaction costs of such a long term bet.
EDIT: Recent events in Fukushima power plant make me slightly more certain about my prediction. Magnitude of the effect will depend on severity of the failure, but it will undoubtedly make safe renewables like wind look more attractive than nuclear power, decreasing chances of the supposed "nuclear renaissance".
In 2011, a new law will be proposed in some jurisdiction which specifically: Restricts cryonics activity. 15%. Protects cryonics patients. 3%.
10%: the United States has a historically hot summer.
This is only notable because it's the only factor that could get cap-and-trade legislation through a Republican House. (Whose bright idea was it to have the 2009 Copenhagen climate change summit in winter? The juxtaposed headlines with the winter storm may have set back the legislation indefinitely.)
Over the last few years, in part due to Less Wrong, I've stopped paying attention to short-term issues. I basically don't consume news anymore as I don't like wasting time learning facts that will be outdated in two-weeks. I think this is a pretty good strategy for information consumption but it means I have very few stable/reasonably distributed predictions with one-year horizons... and they're almost all basketball predictions.
Is it worthwhile to read political and economic news just so I have more things to test my calibration on? Would reading more news even improve my predictions or just make me more/falsely confident in them?
During 2011, there will be (90%) various discoveries (at least 2) of phenomena that will be announced as potentially leading towards much faster computers. However, the current wall of 3 to 4 GHz for the basic CPU clock speed of consumer-level computers will (95%) remain.
60%: conviction of Knox and Sollecito will be reversed. (Updated from 50% after last month's DNA ruling.) PredictionBook.
Continuing riots in major European cities over the imposition of austerity measures: 80%. There have been four such riots in the past six months - in Paris, London, Rome and Athens - and there have been vows of more to come, so this seems pretty likely.
A UAV "peeping tom" story in the British press in 2011: 50% if there hasn't been one already.
EDIT: I mean 2011, not 2010 of course. D'oh!
Annually is not often enough to be fun. Why not make minor predictions seven days out every Sunday? You'd be able to score yourselves better.
Prediction request for emergence of usable (commercial grade or easy DIY) eyewear computing of this sort
http://www.lumus-optical.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=9&Itemid=15
http://blog.2yb.org/2010/07/cd-case-wearable-computer.html
Please feel free to state your distributions beyond 2011
Despite media hysterics as to its imminent demise the current coalition of parties in government in Australia will remain in power. (70%)
Newspapers in Australia will be found to be boosting subscription numbers by a significant amount to swindle advertisers, again. (40%)
Just some questions.
1) Why do most probabilities here in percentage divisible by 5? Is there any reason that they be, I assume, rounded to the nearest 5? If this is the case, the 65% probability means "between 62.5 and 67.75", right? Um, maybe not. I bet some people here round the probabilities to the nearest 10.
2) I would love to see some kind of distribution as well. Can we say something like:
I am 90% confident that the probability that event X happens is between 35% and 50%, but my best bet is 45%.
The distribution is skewed here, and it ...
Next year:
A virus is discovered affecting Android which will create a small crisis in the mobile phone industry: 17%
A minor crisis in rare earth metals will cause an increase in the number of RE mining projects worldwide, judged by starts and investment activity: 15%
.... is caused by Chinese foreign policy, trade restrictions: 65%
.... is caused by an infrastructure disaster in China, natural or man-made: 30%
One of the largest reinsurance companies, top 10, will collapse because of underestimated basis risk: 6%
The New York art scene will be displaced as the...
A major church figure will face allegations of child abuse.
Europeans will riot over reductions in social programs.
A vague new terrorist threat will lead to increased security procedures at American airports.
A conservative talk show host in America will openly endorse murder of atheists, homosexuals, or immigrants.
Video of a pop star engaged in sexual acts will be leaked to the public.
A b-list celebrity will die unexpectedly; CNN will declare this a national tragedy.
A natural disaster will strike a third world country, causing everyone to completely forget ...
Oil price will go over $100/barrel at some time this year: 80% World oil production (crude+condensate) will not exceed 2008 levels in any month of this year: 95%
No human-level (Turing-test passing) AGI this year: 99.5%
Kim Jong Il steps down or dies this year: 60%
Some physical phenomenon will be observed in the next 10 years that points physicists in a more fruitful direction than string theory: 50% (This last is pessimistic, because from the point of view of experimental falsifiability, practically ANYTHING would be better than string theory. I'm just positing that it may take 10 years for that anything to show up).
#2. Google Me, a competitor to Facebook is finally launched. Utilizes an open-source framework like Diaspora. Not many people pay attention until later in the year.
#3. Diaspora makes a second, more full-fledged launch beyond that awkward launch we saw a few months ago, and Facebook buys them (as to be ready for Google Me).
#4. 3D mobile devices (cell phone) are released.
#5. Huge technological advancements in RNAi (ribonucleic aci...
California will implement austerity measures similar to the ones currently being implemented by European countries: 80%.
The bubble underlying the current Chinese boom will collapse: 35%.
Some European country will abandon the Euro: 20%.
#2. Google Me, a competitor to Facebook is finally launched. Utilizes an open-source framework like Diaspora. Not many people pay attention until later in the year. - 75%
#3. Diaspora makes a second, more full-fledged launch beyond that awkward launch we saw a few months ago, and Facebook buys them (as to be ready for Google Me). 65%
#4. 3D mobile devices (cell phone) are released. - 98%
#5. Huge technological advancements in...
I like this. In other words it's over 70% that AGI will be invented before 2020.
No. That calculation assumes independent probabilities for each year.