As we did last year, use this thread to make predictions for the next year and next decade, with probabilities attached when practical.
Happy New Year, Less Wrong!
General AI will not be made in 2011. Confidence: 90%.
I like this. In other words it's over 70% that AGI will be invented before 2020.
No. That calculation assumes independent probabilities for each year.
As we did last year, use this thread to make predictions for the next year and next decade, with probabilities attached when practical.
Happy New Year, Less Wrong!