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Thomas comments on New Year's Predictions Thread (2011) - Less Wrong
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I like this. In other words it's over 70% that AGI will be invented before 2020.
No. That calculation assumes independent probabilities for each year.
So, it's not the prediction for the next year only, but for a longer period.
Interesting.
No. One model that could produce that prediction for next year is that one is 89% confident that GAI is impossible, and 90% confident that if possible, it will be discovered next year. Strange beliefs, yes.
But they give 10% chance this year and 11% in the next ten.