As we did last year, use this thread to make predictions for the next year and next decade, with probabilities attached when practical.
Happy New Year, Less Wrong!
No. That calculation assumes independent probabilities for each year.
So, it's not the prediction for the next year only, but for a longer period.
Interesting.
As we did last year, use this thread to make predictions for the next year and next decade, with probabilities attached when practical.
Happy New Year, Less Wrong!