Miller comments on New Year's Predictions Thread (2011) - Less Wrong

10 Post author: Kevin 02 January 2011 09:58AM

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Comment author: Miller 02 January 2011 05:48:20PM 2 points [-]

This is one of the predictions I would include in my list for key trends over the span of this decade (rather than year). I might in weaker moments also conjunction fallacy it as an Apple product. I think there are some prereqs that still need to be addressed at this point including further maturation of mobile apps, some addressing of social acceptance of life tracking-style media recording, battery life, etc. So yeah.. S curve cumulative probability hitting 50% around 2020 that these achieve iPod like sales figures.

Comment author: Dr_Manhattan 02 January 2011 07:17:41PM 0 points [-]

Agreed, including the Apple conjunction fallacy.