So, it's not the prediction for the next year only, but for a longer period.
Interesting.
No. One model that could produce that prediction for next year is that one is 89% confident that GAI is impossible, and 90% confident that if possible, it will be discovered next year. Strange beliefs, yes.
But they give 10% chance this year and 11% in the next ten.
As we did last year, use this thread to make predictions for the next year and next decade, with probabilities attached when practical.
Happy New Year, Less Wrong!