Vaniver comments on New Year's Predictions Thread (2011) - Less Wrong

10 Post author: Kevin 02 January 2011 09:58AM

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Comment author: Vaniver 02 January 2011 06:32:40PM 2 points [-]

There will be much more discussion in the general media of a "higher education bubble." Not sure how to measure this.

I disagree, for a narrow definition of "general media," and agree for a broad definition of it. It's been an open secret for quite some time that college has a lot of flaws and is negative value for wide swaths of the population, and I imagine that will catch on in many circles. But I really don't see that breaking into the mainstream media, since the value of college is artificially high in most of their narratives (especially since the journalists who are working for the MSM will be people who need to double down on their belief that their degree was worth it).

Comment author: Costanza 02 January 2011 06:57:25PM *  2 points [-]

I should have thought of this before: I just googled "higher education bubble" in quotes, and got 'About 41,000 results'. A search in google news gives five results. A year from now, that should be higher. Not a very good yardstick, but at least it's checkable.

Comment author: Jonathan_Graehl 03 January 2011 01:34:01AM 1 point [-]

You'll need the relative frequency of the phrase (per running word of news article text), not the absolute count of it. In the extreme, if the "from" date of the google news search doesn't advance, you can only expect the number to increase :) Even if there's a fixed time window, you can also expect more words to be generated in the next year than in the past year.

Comment author: Costanza 02 January 2012 05:02:56AM 0 points [-]

For what it's worth, my latest search for the same phrase now results in 'About 1,860,000 results.'