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Vaniver comments on New Year's Predictions Thread (2011) - Less Wrong
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As noted by Keynes, markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you and I can remain solvent. However, I'd say about 80% for each of the following:
The price of gold will fall in real terms. [ETA one year on -- Wrong. Fell a bit towards the end of the year, but still a net rise.]
The price of U.S. housing will fall in real terms. [ETA one year on -- numbers still seem to be being crunched, or at least I can't find anything very recent I'd regard as reliable.]
The rate of inflation of U.S. dollars will rise. [ETA one year on -- I think I got this one right. Subject to updating with better data in the near future.]
There will be much more discussion in the general media of a "higher education bubble." Not sure how to measure this.
@JoshuaZ, the number of servicemembers leaving due to DADT repeal will not be measured. The goverment won't ask, and won't tell. [ETA one year on -- I think I got this one right, for what it's worth. As I understand it, the U.S. military is on a path toward shrinking in general anyway.]
And finally -- not necessarily a prediction for this year -- things that can't go on forever won't. 100%
I disagree, for a narrow definition of "general media," and agree for a broad definition of it. It's been an open secret for quite some time that college has a lot of flaws and is negative value for wide swaths of the population, and I imagine that will catch on in many circles. But I really don't see that breaking into the mainstream media, since the value of college is artificially high in most of their narratives (especially since the journalists who are working for the MSM will be people who need to double down on their belief that their degree was worth it).
I should have thought of this before: I just googled "higher education bubble" in quotes, and got 'About 41,000 results'. A search in google news gives five results. A year from now, that should be higher. Not a very good yardstick, but at least it's checkable.
You'll need the relative frequency of the phrase (per running word of news article text), not the absolute count of it. In the extreme, if the "from" date of the google news search doesn't advance, you can only expect the number to increase :) Even if there's a fixed time window, you can also expect more words to be generated in the next year than in the past year.
For what it's worth, my latest search for the same phrase now results in 'About 1,860,000 results.'