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Hyena comments on New Year's Predictions Thread (2011) - Less Wrong
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Next year:
A virus is discovered affecting Android which will create a small crisis in the mobile phone industry: 17%
A minor crisis in rare earth metals will cause an increase in the number of RE mining projects worldwide, judged by starts and investment activity: 15%
.... is caused by Chinese foreign policy, trade restrictions: 65%
.... is caused by an infrastructure disaster in China, natural or man-made: 30%
One of the largest reinsurance companies, top 10, will collapse because of underestimated basis risk: 6%
The New York art scene will be displaced as the center, process started with clear trajectory: 3%
.... resulted from further dilution of the classical collector pool by collectors driven by current prices: 65%
Next 10 years:
Governments of countries with shrinking or stable populations have shifted to using a measure other than GDP as their primary benchmark of economic growth, 80% of shrinking/stable states: 70%
"Hacker" re 'malicious manipulator of other's networks' will be displaced by "hacker" re 'someone involved in DIY projects and soft, fluffy Frauenfelderism': 67%
Peak travel in the US will lead naturally to changes in urban design as people reduce regular travel to increase leisure travel: 53%
Worker retraining programs are developed which focus on putting people with liberal arts degrees on a trajectory to technical master's degrees, functional in at least 3 of the 15 largest US states: 47%
We reach "peak carbon" in the developed world without a coordinated plan to do so, clear plateau in carbon emissions per person: 40%
Each second-level "..." prediction is conditioned on the preceding first-level prediction, is that right?
Right.
"Peak travel in the US will lead naturally to changes in urban design as people reduce regular travel to increase leisure travel: 53%"
Could you elaborate on this some?
There are various processes underway that are already affecting urban, suburban, and exurban design...some of them are "style" and "trend", some of them are result of the cost:benefit experiment that the last 20-30 yrs of housing development has been (always is, to be fair), some a result of fear or gas prices or the viability of the airline industry.
I'm curious what you see coming out of the interplay of regular travel v. liesure travel...
This percentage seems surprisingly precise. How did you arrive at this number?
<General and oft repeated expression of disapproval for the cultural insistence that significant figures be used to convey confidence or accuracy. />
I'm flattered by some of the speculations lower down. It's not nearly so complex. I basically asked myself a series of questions about each one until I got to a rough idea by tens. The number is then adjusted by 3% or 5% with the former marking "just shy/north of" and the latter "between". If my anxieties, both about the event and not wanting to put direct bias pressure on the number, seem satisfied, I go with it.
Reinsurance got 6% because I thought "a bit more than zero" then "more than that".
One-in-six chance is 16.666..., rounding up is 17%. That's a possibility.
Not all of the other numbers in his post seem to be derived from fractions, though, so not very confident.
Also seems pretty low--83% certain android on so many platforms is pretty secure?
I doubt Hyena believes that: there are already Android viruses, but none of them have caused a small crisis in the mobile phone industry.
Right. I think we might have one sufficiently dangerous or infectious that people actually care.
I know of at least one geocaching/wifi exploit to achieve non-GPS locating; a virus using that plus having some use for the phone's location would certainly scare enough people to start a small crisis.