Will_Sawin comments on New Year's Predictions Thread (2011) - Less Wrong

10 Post author: Kevin 02 January 2011 09:58AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (224)

Sort By: Best

Show:

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: Will_Sawin 02 January 2011 09:58:57PM 2 points [-]

GAI & Riemann look underconfident to me.

Comment author: Thomas 03 January 2011 01:04:06PM 1 point [-]

How confident are you, that they are underconfident? Each one?

Comment author: Will_Sawin 03 January 2011 03:57:49PM 0 points [-]

My estimates are 95% Riemann in a year, 97.5% GAI in a year

Comment author: wedrifid 03 January 2011 04:01:45PM 3 points [-]

My estimates are 95% Riemann in a year, 97.5% GAI in a year

This looks rather odd with no context quoted! :P

Comment author: Will_Sawin 03 January 2011 05:23:45PM 1 point [-]

I bet Eliezer really, really, really hopes I'm overconfident about THAT one.