New Year's Predictions Thread (2011)

Kevin

As we did last year, use this thread to make predictions for the next year and next decade, with probabilities attached when practical.

Happy New Year, Less Wrong!

As we did last year, use this thread to make predictions for the next year and next decade, with probabilities attached when practical.

Happy New Year, Less Wrong!

This comment will be downvoted for being self-conscious: 20%.

This comment will be upvoted for the sake of irony: 35%.

This comment will be downvoted for attempting to get upvotes: 30%.

This comment will be upvoted for being explicit about that fact: 15%.

This comment will be downvoted for being explicit about being explicit about that fact: 15%.

I will regret posting this comment: 65%.

I upvoted because I hope it settles at 0 points, making your whole comment look merely silly. I think the chances of that happening are ~11.293%

0[anonymous]15y

Downvoted because this kind of self-reference humor is old-hat here. (actually I didn't downvote because -14 is enough, but I agree with the downvoters)

2shokwave15y

Massively underconfident. I downvoted for self-consciousness, then I reconsidered and upvoted for the irony. But then I downvoted because I felt you were attempting to get upvotes, then I revised and upvoted for being explicit in that attempt. Then, later, I downvoted for being explicit about your explicitness. Basically, you should have expected high 90s for all of those events. As it stands, your percentages would require you to offer even-money bets for any of those events except regretting, all of which you'd lose.

16

New Year's Predictions Thread (2011)

16

16

16

New Year's Predictions Thread (2011)

16

16