Nornagest comments on New Year's Predictions Thread (2011) - Less Wrong

10 Post author: Kevin 02 January 2011 09:58AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (224)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: Nornagest 03 January 2011 03:15:37AM *  3 points [-]

Annually's long enough for large-scale trends to dominate. I think we'd really have to be embedded in current events for our seven-day predictions to be much better than random, and closely following the press or news blogs is anything but fun -- they deal in exaggerated significance, and filtering that out is exhausting.

A year is a long time, though. I think the ideal period might be something around quarterly.