Nornagest comments on New Year's Predictions Thread (2011) - Less Wrong
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Comments (224)
Annually's long enough for large-scale trends to dominate. I think we'd really have to be embedded in current events for our seven-day predictions to be much better than random, and closely following the press or news blogs is anything but fun -- they deal in exaggerated significance, and filtering that out is exhausting.
A year is a long time, though. I think the ideal period might be something around quarterly.