Skatche comments on New Year's Predictions Thread (2011) - Less Wrong
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Continuing riots in major European cities over the imposition of austerity measures: 80%. There have been four such riots in the past six months - in Paris, London, Rome and Athens - and there have been vows of more to come, so this seems pretty likely.
80% seems way underconfident.
Update?
http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2131