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JoshuaZ comments on New Year's Predictions Thread (2011) - Less Wrong
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Comments (224)
This percentage seems surprisingly precise. How did you arrive at this number?
<General and oft repeated expression of disapproval for the cultural insistence that significant figures be used to convey confidence or accuracy. />
I'm flattered by some of the speculations lower down. It's not nearly so complex. I basically asked myself a series of questions about each one until I got to a rough idea by tens. The number is then adjusted by 3% or 5% with the former marking "just shy/north of" and the latter "between". If my anxieties, both about the event and not wanting to put direct bias pressure on the number, seem satisfied, I go with it.
Reinsurance got 6% because I thought "a bit more than zero" then "more than that".
One-in-six chance is 16.666..., rounding up is 17%. That's a possibility.
Not all of the other numbers in his post seem to be derived from fractions, though, so not very confident.
Also seems pretty low--83% certain android on so many platforms is pretty secure?
I doubt Hyena believes that: there are already Android viruses, but none of them have caused a small crisis in the mobile phone industry.
Right. I think we might have one sufficiently dangerous or infectious that people actually care.
I know of at least one geocaching/wifi exploit to achieve non-GPS locating; a virus using that plus having some use for the phone's location would certainly scare enough people to start a small crisis.