New Year's Predictions Thread (2011)

Kevin

As we did last year, use this thread to make predictions for the next year and next decade, with probabilities attached when practical.

Happy New Year, Less Wrong!

As we did last year, use this thread to make predictions for the next year and next decade, with probabilities attached when practical.

Happy New Year, Less Wrong!

A virus is discovered affecting Android which will create a small crisis in the mobile phone industry: 17%

This percentage seems surprisingly precise. How did you arrive at this number?

I'm flattered by some of the speculations lower down. It's not nearly so complex. I basically asked myself a series of questions about each one until I got to a rough idea by tens. The number is then adjusted by 3% or 5% with the former marking "just shy/north of" and the latter "between". If my anxieties, both about the event and not wanting to put direct bias pressure on the number, seem satisfied, I go with it.

Reinsurance got 6% because I thought "a bit more than zero" then "more than that".

2shokwave15y

One-in-six chance is 16.666..., rounding up is 17%. That's a possibility. Not all of the other numbers in his post seem to be derived from fractions, though, so not very confident.