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Eugine_Nier comments on New Year's Predictions Thread (2011) - Less Wrong
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California will implement austerity measures similar to the ones currently being implemented by European countries: 80%.
The bubble underlying the current Chinese boom will collapse: 35%.
Some European country will abandon the Euro: 20%.
The Chinese bubble is certainly going to collapse, but I doubt it will be a sudden enough collapse to happen within the year. People can talk all they want about undervalued currency or export dependency, my money is on demographic echo from the one child policy, and ecological and agricultural collapse from industrial pollution, both of which would be on the scale of a decade or more instead of a year. Though a smaller bursting of the bubble could happen due to general global economic downturn, the real kicker is still down the road a few years.
I think you're suffering from availability bias. You can easily picture polluted countryside or a population crash, whereas "undervalued currency or export dependency" sound like a minor point of abstract economics.
You may want to look at this article to get a feel for the extent to which Chinese urban policies are driven by a desire to project an image rather then any internal sensible policies. For example, people who aren't born residents aren't allowed to move into Shanghai or Beijing while a third of the newly constructed buildings remain empty.
I'm not saying the near-term economic woes won't hurt China or bust some of their economic bubble. I just think these are less likely to be profoundly crippling. The urban development issues you mention are part of what's leading to China's environmental troubles, and will have bigger impacts than just near term economic imbalance.
I'd personally put the probability of a country abandoning the Euro this year at <5%. I think the major European powers (e.g. Germany and France) are still committed enough to the monetary union to try to make things work out. However, if corrective action fails or is rejected by the voters of southern Europe, then I think we'll see a greater willingness to abandon the Euro by all parties.
EDIT: This raises the related question of, "What is the probability that Greece, Spain, Portugal and Ireland will agree to and implement sufficient austerity measures to prevent a breakup of the Euro?"
Is this year or decade?
All three seem ridiculously high for next year, once vagueness is corrected.
This year.
Why do you think they're too high?