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paulfchristiano comments on New Year's Predictions Thread (2011) - Less Wrong
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It depends on how natural the records in question are. If there are 100 different records to be broken, you expect every year to break one and you should never be surprised when someone reports on it.
If you are choosing random properties and finding them to be extremal with reasonable probability, then you are getting a totally different sort of data.
This is also true but irrelevant. Skatche wasn't making predictions about whether he would be surprised by reports of records being broken. Just a specific prediction about weather.