General AI will not be made in 2011. Confidence: 90%.
Seems underconfident. Shane Legg, who is an AGI researcher, predicts:
My longest running prediction, since 1999, has been the time until roughly human level AGI. It’s been consistent since then, though last year I decided to clarify things a bit and put down an actual distribution and some parameters. Basically, I gave it a log-normal distribution with a mean of 2028, and a mode of 2025.
Although it really depends on what you mean by "General AI."
How representative is Legg's prediction of people in that field? It "feels" very optimistic, but I don't have the relevant expertise. What do other researchers think?
As we did last year, use this thread to make predictions for the next year and next decade, with probabilities attached when practical.
Happy New Year, Less Wrong!