How representative is Legg's prediction of people in that field? It "feels" very optimistic, but I don't have the relevant expertise. What do other researchers think?
Anecdotal evidence suggests it assigns way more probability mass to the next few decades (leaving almost none for subsequent development, social collapse, etc) than the vast majority of researchers. Surveys have been conducted among folk strongly selected for belief in AI (e.g. at Ben's AGI conference linked below, on transhumanist websites, etc) that put a big chunk of probability in that period, but usually not as much as Legg.
Unfortunately, there aren't yet any representative expert polls, and it would be hard to get an expert class that was expert on n...
As we did last year, use this thread to make predictions for the next year and next decade, with probabilities attached when practical.
Happy New Year, Less Wrong!