As we did last year, use this thread to make predictions for the next year and next decade, with probabilities attached when practical.
Happy New Year, Less Wrong!
My page has some graphs:
http://alife.co.uk/essays/how_long_before_superintelligence/
Ben covered this issue in a 2010 paper:
How long until human-level AI? Results from an expert assessment
As we did last year, use this thread to make predictions for the next year and next decade, with probabilities attached when practical.
Happy New Year, Less Wrong!