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timtyler comments on New Year's Predictions Thread (2011) - Less Wrong
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How representative is Legg's prediction of people in that field? It "feels" very optimistic, but I don't have the relevant expertise. What do other researchers think?
My page has some graphs:
http://alife.co.uk/essays/how_long_before_superintelligence/
Ben covered this issue in a 2010 paper:
How long until human-level AI? Results from an expert assessment