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ciphergoth comments on New Year's Predictions Thread (2011) - Less Wrong
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Oh, in that case I'd take the "no" side at 5:1 odds or lower. (I'm metauncertain enough that I wouldn't dare make bets in either direction close enough to my break-even point.)
At those odds a bet is almost but not quite worth it I think!
OK, so it seems our estimates are within the same bid-ask spread.
EDIT: Or rather, our bid-ask spreads intersect.