As we did last year, use this thread to make predictions for the next year and next decade, with probabilities attached when practical.
Happy New Year, Less Wrong!
OK, so it seems our estimates are within the same bid-ask spread.
EDIT: Or rather, our bid-ask spreads intersect.
As we did last year, use this thread to make predictions for the next year and next decade, with probabilities attached when practical.
Happy New Year, Less Wrong!