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James_K comments on New Year's Predictions Thread (2011) - Less Wrong
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It's not climate science, it's mathematics. The probability of a specific number being the highest in a sequence goes down rapidly as the number of items increases. And it's not like the temperature is doubling every year, either.
That's only true for a stationary series, which temperature isn't. For a random walk series you can have a 50% chance of each new observation being the highest ever in the series. For a trended series it can be higher than 50%.