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CronoDAS comments on New Year's Predictions Thread (2011) - Less Wrong
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The unemployment rate in the United States will continue to be above 8%: 90%
"Core inflation" of the U.S. dollar (which ignores food and energy prices) shall remain below 2.0%: 80%
The fifth book in the "A Song of Ice and Fire" series will be published: 5%
A superintelligent AGI will be created: Less than 1 in 1 million
The Large Hadron Collider will destroy the world: Less than 1 in 1 million
My 96-year-old grandmother survives another year: 67%
The Riemann hypothesis is proven: 1 in 5000
I qualify for the Magic Pro Tour: 1%
I get a "real job": 1%
Agreed. And if we're proven wrong, I promise to buy everybody on this list who publicly disagrees a beer, or else an unreasonably expensive mineral water as a means of signaling the equivalent level of deference.
It might be worth noting that even if the LHC does do something that causes the world to be destroyed, it might be a rather slow destruction that could take a few years to complete, so that's not entirely an empty promise...
Damn! I had counted on it being completely empty. Well, no backing out of it now. My offer stands!
Don't worry, I'll chip in. ;)
Dead wrong on this one. She died a few hours ago.
I was going to ask why you gave death such a low probability, but when I went to look at what the mortality rates actually said for a 96 year old female, I found that many don't even go that high: http://www.deathriskrankings.com/MortStats.aspx
Huh.
*hugs*
D: I'm sorry to hear that. Are you doing ok?
Yeah, so far. She had been mostly gone for quite a while, so...
This one and Alzheimer's greatly bother me because they are cryonics-resistant.
1 in 5000 is too small for the Riemann hypothesis, given that people have only been seriously working on it for 130 or so years, and that there still exist very smart people who are optimistic about one approach or another. (I know some of them, in fact.) It's not like P vs. NP, where the experts in the field are agreed that there's almost surely a long way to go for any approach.
I'd put it at 1% to 2.5%, myself.
I assume these all are for 2011 given the year time-frame for the grandmother:
This sounds about right. GRRM expires before finishing the series: 30%.
http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2130