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Costanza comments on New Year's Predictions Thread (2011) - Less Wrong
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The unemployment rate in the United States will continue to be above 8%: 90%
"Core inflation" of the U.S. dollar (which ignores food and energy prices) shall remain below 2.0%: 80%
The fifth book in the "A Song of Ice and Fire" series will be published: 5%
A superintelligent AGI will be created: Less than 1 in 1 million
The Large Hadron Collider will destroy the world: Less than 1 in 1 million
My 96-year-old grandmother survives another year: 67%
The Riemann hypothesis is proven: 1 in 5000
I qualify for the Magic Pro Tour: 1%
I get a "real job": 1%
Agreed. And if we're proven wrong, I promise to buy everybody on this list who publicly disagrees a beer, or else an unreasonably expensive mineral water as a means of signaling the equivalent level of deference.
It might be worth noting that even if the LHC does do something that causes the world to be destroyed, it might be a rather slow destruction that could take a few years to complete, so that's not entirely an empty promise...
Damn! I had counted on it being completely empty. Well, no backing out of it now. My offer stands!
Don't worry, I'll chip in. ;)