shokwave comments on New Year's Predictions Thread (2011) - Less Wrong

10 Post author: Kevin 02 January 2011 09:58AM

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Comment author: CronoDAS 04 January 2011 01:18:07AM 7 points [-]

The unemployment rate in the United States will continue to be above 8%: 90%

"Core inflation" of the U.S. dollar (which ignores food and energy prices) shall remain below 2.0%: 80%

The fifth book in the "A Song of Ice and Fire" series will be published: 5%

A superintelligent AGI will be created: Less than 1 in 1 million

The Large Hadron Collider will destroy the world: Less than 1 in 1 million

My 96-year-old grandmother survives another year: 67%

The Riemann hypothesis is proven: 1 in 5000

I qualify for the Magic Pro Tour: 1%

I get a "real job": 1%

Comment author: shokwave 04 January 2011 02:28:52AM 0 points [-]

The fifth book in the "A Song of Ice and Fire" series will be published: 5%

This sounds about right. GRRM expires before finishing the series: 30%.

Comment author: gwern 10 January 2011 11:28:30PM 1 point [-]