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orthonormal comments on New Year's Predictions Thread (2011) - Less Wrong
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The unemployment rate in the United States will continue to be above 8%: 90%
"Core inflation" of the U.S. dollar (which ignores food and energy prices) shall remain below 2.0%: 80%
The fifth book in the "A Song of Ice and Fire" series will be published: 5%
A superintelligent AGI will be created: Less than 1 in 1 million
The Large Hadron Collider will destroy the world: Less than 1 in 1 million
My 96-year-old grandmother survives another year: 67%
The Riemann hypothesis is proven: 1 in 5000
I qualify for the Magic Pro Tour: 1%
I get a "real job": 1%
1 in 5000 is too small for the Riemann hypothesis, given that people have only been seriously working on it for 130 or so years, and that there still exist very smart people who are optimistic about one approach or another. (I know some of them, in fact.) It's not like P vs. NP, where the experts in the field are agreed that there's almost surely a long way to go for any approach.
I'd put it at 1% to 2.5%, myself.