Now that you mention it, and upon reflection, I must admit I am biased by some vague, aesthetic sentiments as well.
Are you going to therefore revise your estimate downward?
That's a good question. If this were a disinterested Bayesian search for the truth, then of course. But I take this particular game as a simulated bet, albeit for no monetary stakes. Before I post anything, I have to search inside myself for the most rational course; but once I place my bet, I'm stuck with it. No fair changing it. Reality will determine whether I win or lose, come the end of 2011.
Also, in this real world of ours, I think inarticulable intuitions may have a rational basis, in the same way that a skilled basketball player can make a fr...
As we did last year, use this thread to make predictions for the next year and next decade, with probabilities attached when practical.
Happy New Year, Less Wrong!