Shane Legg says that there is a 95% probability of human-level AI by 2045.
I was surprised, his recent post didn't leave me with this impression, and I didn't remember the past well enough. But apparently this is correct, here's the post and visualization of the prediction endorsed by Legg.
As we did last year, use this thread to make predictions for the next year and next decade, with probabilities attached when practical.
Happy New Year, Less Wrong!