= 27d567bc2d48d9f40e9ccc20ea370b15)
Broggly comments on New Year's Predictions Thread (2011) - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
= 783df68a0f980790206b9ea87794c5b6)
Loading…= b715d02e85f7b3b4ae65ca3d3e450868)
Subscribe to RSS Feed
Powered by Reddit
= f037147d6e6c911a85753b9abdedda8d)
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (224)
Wow, you think the North Korea situation's that bad? A one in five chance of war seems too high for me.
In retrospect, you're right. Bump up the no-war-in-NK probability. It's funny how assigning a lower probability to X feels cautious, but assigning a higher probability to not-X feels risky, even though it's just two ways of saying the same damn thing. I think there's a top-level post in this somewhere.