I just mean that it's objectively and clearly judgeable a wrong now that the year is out.
This is a rare and valuable property, as one will learn after reading through a few compilations of predictions for 2011.
Thanks for the clarification; my first reading was that you were holding people to the wrong standard. If you made 10 predictions at 70% each, and 6 of them come true, then you should be lauded rather than criticized. If all 10 of them come true (and appear to be causally independent of each other), then you should be criticized for underconfidence.
If all 10 of them come true (and appear to be causally independent of each other), then you should be criticized for underconfidence.
/looks at http://predictionbook.com/users/gwern
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As we did last year, use this thread to make predictions for the next year and next decade, with probabilities attached when practical.
Happy New Year, Less Wrong!