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orthonormal comments on New Year's Predictions Thread (2011) - Less Wrong
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In my opinion, mattnewport's 50% odds weren't that badly calibrated (especially given the Times Square attempt).
Wow, really? I'll happily make the same bet again for 2011 if you'll offer it again - though I'd like to slightly tighten the rules to say it has to be a conspiracy, because I don't think something like Fort Hood should count.
Oh, my own odds are lower than mattnewport's, just not low enough to call his estimate crazy.
Also, my bid-ask spread is pretty high if we're talking actual bets. I'd take the "yes" side at something like 10:1 odds, and the "no" side at 2:1 odds the other way. And I'd only feel morally comfortable betting the "yes" side in the context of a formal prediction market, where the positive externalities to having accurate odds would assuage my guilt about collecting in that case.