sketerpot comments on New Year's Predictions Thread (2011) - Less Wrong

10 Post author: Kevin 02 January 2011 09:58AM

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Comment author: sketerpot 05 January 2011 02:20:43AM *  5 points [-]

In retrospect, you're right. Bump up the no-war-in-NK probability. It's funny how assigning a lower probability to X feels cautious, but assigning a higher probability to not-X feels risky, even though it's just two ways of saying the same damn thing. I think there's a top-level post in this somewhere.