Eugine_Nier comments on New Year's Predictions Thread (2011) - Less Wrong

10 Post author: Kevin 02 January 2011 09:58AM

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Comment author: Eugine_Nier 05 January 2011 06:05:04AM 2 points [-]

One way to think about the bid-ask spread, is that while orthonormal's current probability is 10%, he'd consider someone offering to bet him actual money on one side or the other to be sufficient evidence to adjust his belief significantly in that direction.