New Year's Predictions Thread (2011)

Kevin

As we did last year, use this thread to make predictions for the next year and next decade, with probabilities attached when practical.

Happy New Year, Less Wrong!

As we did last year, use this thread to make predictions for the next year and next decade, with probabilities attached when practical.

Happy New Year, Less Wrong!

Oil price will go over $100/barrel at some time this year: 80% World oil production (crude+condensate) will not exceed 2008 levels in any month of this year: 95%

No human-level (Turing-test passing) AGI this year: 99.5%

Kim Jong Il steps down or dies this year: 60%

Some physical phenomenon will be observed in the next 10 years that points physicists in a more fruitful direction than string theory: 50% (This last is pessimistic, because from the point of view of experimental falsifiability, practically ANYTHING would be better than string theory. I'm just positing that it may take 10 years for that anything to show up).

Oil over $100/bbl: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2122
World oil production sounds like it would be a real pain to verify, so unless you have a specific data source in mind, I think I'm going to omit it - I certainly don't want to spend hours googling and ad-hoc educating myself about world oil production until I can make a guess at how to judge the prediction.
AGI seems like a dupe of http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2092
Kim: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2123
Physics: omitting because don't know how one would judge it.

EDIT: oil ha... (read more)

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New Year's Predictions Thread (2011)

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New Year's Predictions Thread (2011)

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