= 27d567bc2d48d9f40e9ccc20ea370b15)
shadow comments on New Year's Predictions Thread (2011) - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
= 783df68a0f980790206b9ea87794c5b6)
Loading…= b715d02e85f7b3b4ae65ca3d3e450868)
Subscribe to RSS Feed
Powered by Reddit
= f037147d6e6c911a85753b9abdedda8d)
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (224)
Just some questions.
1) Why do most probabilities here in percentage divisible by 5? Is there any reason that they be, I assume, rounded to the nearest 5? If this is the case, the 65% probability means "between 62.5 and 67.75", right? Um, maybe not. I bet some people here round the probabilities to the nearest 10.
2) I would love to see some kind of distribution as well. Can we say something like:
The distribution is skewed here, and it should be right-skewed if the probabilities involve, say, mutual agreements from a large number of independent parties. I'm not sure about the others, but it helps me imagine the picture.
3) * hic * Can someone make a prediction whether some of us here are time travelers (from the future)? [Got the joke?]
4) Can someone make predictions about predictions (including self)? Please.
Hello shadow, Welcome to LessWrong! I think the answers to your questions are as follows:
1) Working out exact probabilities for these kinds of predictions is unfeasible, so we approximate. Rounding to the 5 seems natural to a lot of us, and (I expect) it automatically conveys the approximate-ness of the prediction to most people.
2) Probability is in the mind. Therefore, giving a distribution of probabilities is just a way of saying "I am uncertain about how uncertain I am".
4) Don't think I understand this one, although this might qualify and/or interest you.