Next year:

A virus is discovered affecting Android which will create a small crisis in the mobile phone industry: 17%

A minor crisis in rare earth metals will cause an increase in the number of RE mining projects worldwide, judged by starts and investment activity: 15%

.... is caused by Chinese foreign policy, trade restrictions: 65%

.... is caused by an infrastructure disaster in China, natural or man-made: 30%

One of the largest reinsurance companies, top 10, will collapse because of underestimated basis risk: 6%

The New York art scene will be displaced as the center, process started with clear trajectory: 3%

.... resulted from further dilution of the classical collector pool by collectors driven by current prices: 65%

Next 10 years:

Governments of countries with shrinking or stable populations have shifted to using a measure other than GDP as their primary benchmark of economic growth, 80% of shrinking/stable states: 70%

"Hacker" re 'malicious manipulator of other's networks' will be displaced by "hacker" re 'someone involved in DIY projects and soft, fluffy Frauenfelderism': 67%

Peak travel in the US will lead naturally to changes in urban design as people reduce regular travel to increase leisure travel: 53%

Worker retraining programs are developed which focus on putting people with liberal arts degrees on a trajectory to technical master's degrees, functional in at least 3 of the 15 largest US states: 47%

We reach "peak carbon" in the developed world without a coordinated plan to do so, clear plateau in carbon emissions per person: 40%