gwern comments on New Year's Predictions Thread (2011) - Less Wrong
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10%: the United States has a historically hot summer.
This is only notable because it's the only factor that could get cap-and-trade legislation through a Republican House. (Whose bright idea was it to have the 2009 Copenhagen climate change summit in winter? The juxtaposed headlines with the winter storm may have set back the legislation indefinitely.)
http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2098 ; what data source do you plan to use?
The NOAA's State of the Climate report, I think; I'll look for the September 2011 version of this news release on the June-August summer.