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Desrtopa comments on New Year's Predictions Thread (2011) - Less Wrong
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As noted by Keynes, markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you and I can remain solvent. However, I'd say about 80% for each of the following:
The price of gold will fall in real terms. [ETA one year on -- Wrong. Fell a bit towards the end of the year, but still a net rise.]
The price of U.S. housing will fall in real terms. [ETA one year on -- numbers still seem to be being crunched, or at least I can't find anything very recent I'd regard as reliable.]
The rate of inflation of U.S. dollars will rise. [ETA one year on -- I think I got this one right. Subject to updating with better data in the near future.]
There will be much more discussion in the general media of a "higher education bubble." Not sure how to measure this.
@JoshuaZ, the number of servicemembers leaving due to DADT repeal will not be measured. The goverment won't ask, and won't tell. [ETA one year on -- I think I got this one right, for what it's worth. As I understand it, the U.S. military is on a path toward shrinking in general anyway.]
And finally -- not necessarily a prediction for this year -- things that can't go on forever won't. 100%
Was that another prediction, or something the government has already confirmed?
That would be a prediction, specifically applied to what the federal government will do or not do during 2011.
With that said, I'd say human motivations are complicated. I could foresee, for instance the following motivations for leaving the military:
Enlisted infantryman:
[Subjective motivation]: I have failed ranger school in an embarrassing fashion.
[Declared motivation for leaving the army]: A bunch of fags are running the show now.
Infantry officer:
[Subjective motivation]: A bunch of fags are running the show now.
[Declared motivation]: I now wish to serve my country by pursuing public office.
I took it as a joke.