TheRev comments on New Year's Predictions Thread (2011) - Less Wrong

10 Post author: Kevin 02 January 2011 09:58AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (224)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: TheRev 07 January 2011 08:42:16AM *  1 point [-]

I guess I should have said 95% confidence on each of them rather than all of them. I would take 10 to one odds on any of them individually, and probably even money on all of them, depending on how the predictions were formalized. (IE instead of "A b-list celebrity will die unexpectedly; CNN will declare this a national tragedy." "CNN will devote X hours of news time to the death of an actor who has not starred in a movie grossing over Y million in the last Z years, or a musician who has not made it onto the Billboard top 100 in at least Z years."

Out of curiosity, which ones would you think most likely to turn out wrong and lose the bet for me?