Eugine_Nier comments on New Year's Predictions Thread (2011) - Less Wrong

10 Post author: Kevin 02 January 2011 09:58AM

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Comment author: Eugine_Nier 07 January 2011 06:46:12PM 1 point [-]

I think you're suffering from availability bias. You can easily picture polluted countryside or a population crash, whereas "undervalued currency or export dependency" sound like a minor point of abstract economics.

You may want to look at this article to get a feel for the extent to which Chinese urban policies are driven by a desire to project an image rather then any internal sensible policies. For example, people who aren't born residents aren't allowed to move into Shanghai or Beijing while a third of the newly constructed buildings remain empty.

Comment author: TheRev 08 January 2011 10:09:32AM 0 points [-]

I'm not saying the near-term economic woes won't hurt China or bust some of their economic bubble. I just think these are less likely to be profoundly crippling. The urban development issues you mention are part of what's leading to China's environmental troubles, and will have bigger impacts than just near term economic imbalance.