China will remain on-schedule with their build-up of nuclear plants (70%) and will announce that they are once again increasing their goal for nuclear generation capacity by 2020 above their current target of 112 GWe (50%). The mainstream position of major environmentalist groups in Europe and North America will continue to be that nuclear plants are always delayed and far over budget, even as China continues to demonstrate otherwise (90%).

Cloud computing will see two big trends. First, commoditization: there will be more choices, and significantly better interoperability between those choices (80%). Second, Amazon Web Services will continue to roll out interesting new services, and everybody else in the market will either be playing catch-up or trying to focus on different niches, but not leading the market in any significant way (70%).

Iran will not produce a nuclear bomb in 2011 (90%). North Korea will continue saber rattling, but will not be involved in a war (80%).

There will be a second season of High School of the Dead, allowing me to get my zombie action fix for the year (60%). I know this is crushingly inconsequential, but zombies are fun.

SpaceX will successfully complete orbit-matching and docking with the International Space Station (60%), as well as the first flight of their Falcon 1e rocket (70%). Conditioning on success in the ISS docking, the first two resupply missions will succeed (80%). All within 2011.

ONE YEAR LATER: I am too damn optimistic. The highly publicized accident at Fukushima caused China to delay their nuclear build-up. My cloud computing predictions were accurate, but also super conservative, and so were the ones about Iran and North Korea. There wasn't a second season of Highschool of the Dead; just a fairly disappointing one-episode OVA. The Falcon 1e looks delayed, and the first docking of the Falcon 9 with the Space Station is scheduled for early 2012, which is nice, but still not 2011, so that prediction didn't quite come true.