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CronoDAS comments on New Year's Predictions Thread (2011) - Less Wrong
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The unemployment rate in the United States will continue to be above 8%: 90%
"Core inflation" of the U.S. dollar (which ignores food and energy prices) shall remain below 2.0%: 80%
The fifth book in the "A Song of Ice and Fire" series will be published: 5%
A superintelligent AGI will be created: Less than 1 in 1 million
The Large Hadron Collider will destroy the world: Less than 1 in 1 million
My 96-year-old grandmother survives another year: 67%
The Riemann hypothesis is proven: 1 in 5000
I qualify for the Magic Pro Tour: 1%
I get a "real job": 1%
Dead wrong on this one. She died a few hours ago.
I was going to ask why you gave death such a low probability, but when I went to look at what the mortality rates actually said for a 96 year old female, I found that many don't even go that high: http://www.deathriskrankings.com/MortStats.aspx
Huh.
*hugs*
D: I'm sorry to hear that. Are you doing ok?
Yeah, so far. She had been mostly gone for quite a while, so...
This one and Alzheimer's greatly bother me because they are cryonics-resistant.