New Year's Predictions Thread (2011)

Kevin

As we did last year, use this thread to make predictions for the next year and next decade, with probabilities attached when practical.

Happy New Year, Less Wrong!

As we did last year, use this thread to make predictions for the next year and next decade, with probabilities attached when practical.

Happy New Year, Less Wrong!

Oil over $100/bbl: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2122
World oil production sounds like it would be a real pain to verify, so unless you have a specific data source in mind, I think I'm going to omit it - I certainly don't want to spend hours googling and ad-hoc educating myself about world oil production until I can make a guess at how to judge the prediction.
AGI seems like a dupe of http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2092
Kim: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2123
Physics: omitting because don't know how one would judge it.

EDIT: oil has already been closed as correct. I was probably underconfident there - oil has such volatility in recent years one should expect it to go over $100/bbl even with quasi-efficient markets in mind.

Thanks

2 - I've put up a more precise prediction http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2134

5 - I've put up a more precise prediction asserting a Nobel prize win for a non-string unification theory by end of 2020.

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New Year's Predictions Thread (2011)

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New Year's Predictions Thread (2011)

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